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First mover or fast follower? When to jump on a trend
VOL. 088

Should you be a first mover, a fast follower or a cautious observer?

Hi, there! 

This is the second of four exclusive topics we’re covering here in our newsletter as part of the broader 2025 Beer Branding Trends Report

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Let's get into it.





Spirits. Hard Cider. Non-alcoholic. Cannabis. Functional. Energy. Coffee. Sodas. Seltzer. Tea. RTDs. FMBs. Hop Water………

Breweries of all sizes are releasing Fourth Category products today, and looking at shifting consumer preference trends, it’s clear that this is the right move. The brewery of tomorrow needs to be thinking Beyond Beer
 
But consumer preferences shift fast, in some cases, seemingly overnight. This creates a constantly moving target and begs the question: When should your brewery wade into a trending segment and release a new product? 
 
Is now the right time to release a line of cocktails? How about a hard cider, or a hard tea, or a non-alcoholic beer? Some of these segments are more established than others, but how about more nascent options like cannabis beverages or Hop Water?
 
This is what we're going to discuss today:
 
 How should your brewery think about new product development? 
 How can you decide if a new category makes sense for your brewery? 
 And more importantly, when does it make sense to pull the trigger and develop a new offering, vs. sitting back and waiting for a category to continue taking shape?
 
We’re regularly making recommendations on this front through our Brand Strategy and Architecture work, so I want to give you a rundown here on how we think about and discuss this topic with our clients.

(Above): Hop Water, NA Beer, canned coffee, RTD cocktails and all manner of functional beverages are trending right now. But are they right for your brewery's brand?




1

Brand Architecture (Where can your brand credibly go?)
 
This entire subject is, first and foremost, a question of Brand Architecture.
 
Before launching a new product, you must determine where this brand should live within your broader Brand Architecture. 
 
Does this overlap heavily enough with your current customers, values, intended experience and occasions that aligning it closely with your parent brand makes sense?

 
 
Or is this a flier — something that could confuse your longtime fans and partners? 
 
This boils down to where you can credibly take your parent brand. Does it make sense for your brewery to release a particular product? What does this move say about your business?
 
If it doesn’t make sense for your brewery to release this product tied closely with your parent brand, that’s no sweat. You’ll just have to move further to the right on the Beverage Brand Architecture Continuum into Endorsed or standalone brand territory. 
 
We’ve written extensively about Brand Architecture (including our latest book). Here are a handful of resources for more info on this topic:
 
> The Beyond Beer Handbook – [ Book ]
> The Role of your parent brand in Brand Architecture – [ BBT Newsletter ]
> In defense of the Branded House – [ BBT Newsletter ]
> 14 questions to ask before you launch a new brand – [ Podcast ]

 

 
Once you’ve figured out where a product should be positioned within your portfolio, you can discuss whether now is the right time to launch it.

(Above): The Beverage Extension Assessment Tool (B.E.A.T.) is a purpose-built diagnostic tool that will outline the correct path from your initial concept to finished, positioned product.




2

Where are you located? 
 
CODO works with brewers across the United States and Canada as well as (currently) half a dozen other countries around the world. Through this work, we’ve heard a variety of takes on where a particular market sits on embracing new trends. And it’s always relative to another market. 
 
 “Yeah, we’re always 3–5 years behind the coasts in terms of trends.” – A brewery in the Midwest
 “We’re always a few years behind America when it comes to new styles.” – A brewery in Australia
 

 
If you’re in a more progressive beer market, then everyone around you, including other breweries, retailers and drinkers alike are wired to be early adopters. 
 
So, a cannabis brand might do better in Minneapolis than, say, Albuquerque. (Legal considerations are obviously at play in this example…)
 
Or a non-alcoholic beer will do far better in California than, say, Topeka. (At least at first.)
 
So, if you’re somewhere in the Midwest — no shade here, I’m typing this from beautiful Indiana — then it might make sense to not jump on a new trend the first time you hear about it. 
 
This doesn’t mean you can’t launch a new product, but you do need to be aware of the risk of being too early without sufficient consumer education in place.

Category building is serious, and expensive, business. If you spring a new brand onto a public that still doesn’t understand what XYZ-product segment even is — Oh, you can *drink* cannabis now? — then you might miss the mark and burn yourself out before you have a chance to gain traction.
 
There’s a lot of lead-up and consumer education needed to be done in these cases.
 
Speaking of…

 
3

Is there an 800-pound gorilla in the segment yet? 
 
I want to stay on consumer education for a moment — you cannot discount how important this is in CPG brand building. And a lot of this education happens as two or three major first movers battle it out for share of mind. 
 
A few examples:
 
 White Claw and Truly spent hundreds of millions of dollars to teach consumers what hard seltzer is and cement in their respective shares.

 Athletic Brewing is putting on a clinic in category building, scaling from startup to top 10 brewery in the US in just seven years.

 Liquid Death gave CPG water brands permission to innovate on format and move away from plastic (and fully embrace branding and advertising).

 And as we speak, Lagunitas, Sierra Nevada and HOP WTR are all working hard to educate consumers about HopWater and securing as much market share as possible.


 



 
My point here is that sometimes it can be better to let someone else break the ice and do the hard (expensive) work of building a category before you throw your hat in the ring. Especially if you don’t have endless resources to throw behind your brand. 

(Above): On 800-pound gorillas — Category building (consumer, retailer and distributor education + fighting for and unlocking new PODs) is hard, expensive work. Depending on where you see a new category's current standing, and trajectory, you have to decide whether or not you have the resources to build your brand while also building the category itself. 

This is a *major* consideration (along with your geography) if you're thinking about getting into the cannabis segment today. 




4

Are you passionate about this category? 
 
Quick story here: We helped a brewery bring a hard seltzer to market back in 2019. And the head brewer hated the product. He despised making it, though he realized it was an important opportunity. 
 
This isn’t that great a story, because they released the product and it’s still selling well (as well as hard seltzer can sell in 2025). But I’ve often wondered how much better the brand would perform if their team was as passionate about seltzer as they are with beer. Instead of accounting for 8–10% of their sales, could it have otherwise become more like 15–20%?
 
Look, you gotta keep the lights on and pay your team. And we’re all in business to make money, after all. But if your heart’s not in something, I do think that this will show up downstream. Your marketing won’t be as passionate as it could be, your reps won’t push the brand as hard as they could, and there just won’t be as much energy and buzz as there could be with a product you care about. (And your customers will pick up on all of this.) 
 
So, if you’re not genuinely passionate about a product or segment, then maybe now’s not the time to get into that new space.


5

Could you give it a slow boil?
 
Before diving headfirst into a new category, consider taking a "slow boil" approach. This strategy allows you to test the waters without committing to a full-scale launch (complete with name development and Brand Strategy and positioning and brand identity and package design, and on and on).
 
Start by releasing your new product in your taproom. This controlled environment gives you a perfect testing ground to gauge interest, gather feedback, and refine your offering. It's a low-risk way to come to market and start learning without breaking the bank.
 
I think a lot of the pressure from these decisions centers around the idea that this requires an all-or-nothing approach. We either spend $50k–$75k (whatever the number is) for branding and packaging and do this right or we don’t do it at all.
 
And while there is something to be said about coming to market all at once with a big splash, this also might not be the best move today. 
 
A slow, measured approach isn't just about saving money. It allows you to observe how trends and the competitive set plays out in other markets, potentially helping you avoid costly missteps. 
 
Consider your local competitive landscape as well. Remember, innovation and positioning doesn’t always mean being first. Sometimes, it means being smart about when and how you enter a new category.

Or, making a meaningfully differentiated product…


6

Remember the Law of Category
 
If you decide to slowly tinker with your recipe/brand while watching a category take shape, use that time wisely. Continuously look for opportunities to differentiate your offering.
 
Consider the evolution of IPA over the last 15 years: English-Style IPA > American IPA > West Coast IPA > Grapefruit IPA > Session IPA > New England IPA (Hazy) > Milkshake IPA > DDH IPA > Brut IPA > Wet Hop IPA > Imperial IPA > Cold IPA > ???


 
Each step represents a new opportunity for differentiation. By observing how a category develops, you can identify gaps in the market and potentially leapfrog competitors with a more refined or innovative product.
 
In this way, you’re not releasing another cannabis beverage, you’re releasing the first sparkling cannabis soda with electrolytes. Or the first cannabis digestif with probiotics. Or the first cannabis with [insert whatever magic elixir of the day is trending in CPG beverage].

Subtle moves like these help you carve out defensible positioning in someone's mind.

(Above): Law of Category — this isn't a fruited beer, it's Smooj. This isn't another hard seltzer, it's Ranch Water. This isn't wine, it's Beat Box. (Or, as one of our clients called it, "A BORG with cute packaging.")




Wrapping up
 
Let’s skip ahead in this timeline to after you’ve launched a new product. This is tangentially related to the idea of jumping on new trends, but product lifestyle and churn is important here as well. 
 

How long a runway do you give this new brand?
 
Once you launch a new product, how much runway do you give it before either doubling down and re-investing or pulling the plug?
 
Today's market moves at breakneck speed. Gone are the days when you could give a product a year or two to find its footing, methodically building the brand on-premise. 
 
In our work, we’re seeing closer to 90- to 120-day windows to prove viability, especially with our larger brewery partners.
 
Your brewery and wholesale partners will already have clear key performance indicators (KPIs) in mind, like:
 
 Is your rate of sale where it needs to be?

 Are you hitting your rebuy hurdles (are retailers reordering)?

 What feedback are you hearing from your retail and chain team?

 How many new accounts / Points of Distribution (PODs) are you bringing online each week / month?

After a quarter or so, or maybe early fall following a spring reset, you should have a clear idea of what is or isn’t working. And don’t lose sight of the old school brand building work during this time either. Yes, you need to have beautiful branding and package design — and a killer name — but other things to keep your eye on include:
 
– Sampling (getting out there and getting it into people’s hands)

– Field activation (showing up wherever your people get together — festivals, shows, events, etc.)

– Merchandising (making sure you have proper POS out in the market to support the brand)

– Pricing (making sure it’s priced right for your market)

– Connecting your on-premise programming with off-premise 
 
I do think a slow boil approach works well for dialing in your recipe and plan. But when you decide to take the leap and brand, position and package this new product, you need to get it right. 
 
And you’ll need to get it right quickly. 

Around the Shop

Come hang out at our office (and meet other beer marketing and branding folks) during CBC

We’re excited to invite you to the Beer Marketers Exchange (BMeX).

This will be an intimate gathering at our new office that aims to bring beer branding and marketing folks — brand directors, in-house designers, founders — together to discuss what is and isn't working with their brewery's marketing and branding.

No sales pitches or big presentations, just a chance to exchange tips, tricks and war stories. And/or just talk shop over some great food and (loads of) beer with folks from across the country.

Craft Brewers Conference in Indy is next week! 

CODO is speaking at CBC this year in Indy (our home town!). 

We’ll be giving a seminar called: 

When (and When Not) to Rebrand Your Brewery: How to Evolve Your Brand Without Losing Fans Along the Way

This will be a fun conversation on the different ways your brewery can revamp its brand to stay relevant in the long term.

We’re going to cover:

– When you should (and should not) rebrand
– How to define your visual and Brand Equity
– How to assign value to these ideas
– Three different ways you can revamp your brand (Rebrand, Brand Refresh, Package Refresh)

+

– How to launch your rebrand (without alienating long term fans)

We are so (so, so, SO) excited about this. Looking forward to meeting dozens of clients, showing off our new office and taking you all the best local breweries.

Let me know if you'll be in Indy. Come to our seminar and swing by our beautiful new office. 

Ready to learn more?

The Beyond Beer Handbook

Part book, part quiz, and part choose-your-own-adventure-style novel, The Beyond Beer Handbook is a purpose-built tool for helping you expand your brewery’s portfolio and build a more resilient business.

Craft Beer, Rebranded

Craft Beer, Rebranded and its companion Workbook are a step-by-step guide to map out a winning strategy ahead of your rebrand. Building on CODO’s decade of brewery branding experience, this book will help you weigh your brand equity, develop your brand strategy and breathe new life into your brewery’s brand.

Craft Beer Branding Guide

The Craft Beer Branding Guide outlines how to brand, position and launch a new brewery or beverage company. This is a must-read for any brewery in planning.

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